Short Abstract for “Carceral Schools & College Expectations: Evidence from the National Crime Victimization Survey School Crime Supplement”

This study examines the impact of attending a “carceral school”- that is a school with metal detectors, locker checks, police or security staff, required identification badges, locked doors, and surveillance cameras- has on individual students’ expectations that they will attend college in the future. Using data from the National Crime Victimization Survey: School Crime Supplement 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011, 2013, and 2015, I show that visible and intrusive security measures negatively impact students’ expectations of their future educational attainment. Using  a probit model, I estimate that metal detectors and locker checks are associated respectively with a significant -0.026 and -0.017 marginal effect on a student’s expectation of graduating from a four-year college in the future, while controlling for achievement, race and ethnicity, gender, age, private or public school, household income level, and time. I then survey the literature on the school-to-prison pipeline, school security, and racial identity and schooling to theorize that three channels contribute to this negative effect: the crowding out of college preparatory resources, internalized negative feedback and stereotype threat, and developing perceptions of injustice with regards to school security. This finding illustrates an important negative spillover effect of increasing school security in regards to student’s expectations of educational attainment.

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